Momentum Chaser
Trend-following works because humans are slow to update beliefs. This portfolio rides the strongest trends in the market — winners tend to keep winning, especially over 6-12 month horizons.
Holdings
| Symbol | Name | Weight | Price | 1D | 3M | YTD | Yield | AUM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTUM | iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF | 35% | $263.59 | ... | ... | ... | 0.7% | $22.2B |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 | 30% | $610.96 | ... | ... | ... | 0.5% | $396.3B |
| IMTM | iShares MSCI Intl Momentum Factor ETF | 15% | $51.62 | ... | ... | ... | 4.4% | $3.8B |
| IWF | iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF | 20% | $446.31 | ... | ... | ... | 0.4% | $117.3B |
Investment Thesis
The momentum factor is one of the most robust findings in financial economics. Stocks that have performed well over the past 6-12 months tend to continue outperforming over the next 3-6 months. This isn't a free lunch — momentum crashes hard during market reversals (it lost 50%+ in 2009). But the long-term track record is compelling: momentum has delivered 5-10% annual alpha over the market since 1927. MTUM systematically selects the highest-momentum US large and mid-cap stocks, rebalancing twice a year. QQQ provides structural momentum exposure through the tech sector, which has been the market's momentum leader for years. IMTM extends the factor internationally. IWF captures growth stocks, which tend to overlap heavily with momentum during trending markets. The key risk is a sharp market reversal — momentum portfolios are by definition crowded into the same trades, and unwinding can be violent.
Portfolio Construction
Key Considerations
- Momentum crashes during sharp market reversals — losses of 30-50% are possible in months
- High turnover means higher costs and tax inefficiency compared to buy-and-hold strategies
- The factor can underperform for years during choppy, sideways markets
- Momentum and growth are highly correlated — this portfolio is concentrated in one factor bet