Gold & Hard Assets

Moderate Thematic

Central banks are buying gold at record pace. Fiscal deficits are exploding globally. This portfolio says: when governments can't stop spending, own things they can't print.

4
ETFs
0.8%
Aggregate Yield
$26.5B
Wtd Avg AUM

Holdings

Symbol Name Weight Price 1D 3M YTD Yield AUM
AAAU Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF Shares 40% $46.94 ... ... ... — $2.9B
GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF 25% $99.41 ... ... ... 0.6% $30.7B
PDBC Invesco Actively Managed Exch-Traded Commodity Fd Tr Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF 15% $16.98 ... ... ... 3.0% $6.4B
ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF 20% $148.68 ... ... ... 1.1% $83.4B

Investment Thesis

Gold hit all-time highs in 2024-2025 and the structural drivers are only getting stronger. Central banks — led by China, India, Poland, and Turkey — bought over 1,000 tonnes in 2023 and again in 2024, the highest pace in decades. They're diversifying away from US dollar reserves in response to sanctions risk and US fiscal trajectory. The US deficit is running at 6%+ of GDP in a non-recessionary environment, with no political will on either side to cut spending. This isn't a short-term trade — it's a structural bet on monetary debasement. Physical gold (AAAU) is the core holding because it has zero counterparty risk. Gold miners (GDX) provide leveraged upside — when gold rises 20%, miners typically rise 40-60% because their profit margins expand dramatically. PDBC adds broader commodity exposure for additional real asset diversification. The ITOT allocation provides equity growth and reduces the drag of non-yielding assets.

Portfolio Construction

AAAU Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF Shares
40%
Physical gold — the ultimate hard asset. Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF backed by gold bars in London vaults. Zero counterparty risk, direct exposure to the gold price, and central bank demand tailwinds.
AUM: $2.9B
GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF
25%
Gold miners for leveraged upside — Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle, and other major producers. When gold prices rise, miners' margins expand disproportionately because their costs are largely fixed. A 20% gold move can mean a 50%+ move in miners.
Yield: 0.6% AUM: $30.7B
PDBC Invesco Actively Managed Exch-Traded Commodity Fd Tr Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
15%
Broad commodities diversification — oil, natural gas, agriculture, and base metals. Provides inflation protection beyond just precious metals and benefits from global economic growth driving demand.
Yield: 3.0% AUM: $6.4B
ITOT iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF
20%
Equity ballast — the total US stock market provides growth, income, and diversification against periods when gold and commodities underperform.
Yield: 1.1% AUM: $83.4B

Key Considerations

  • Gold pays no income — you're betting purely on price appreciation
  • Gold miners are operationally risky (cost overruns, geopolitical issues, labor disputes)
  • If real interest rates rise significantly, gold tends to fall as the opportunity cost increases
  • Commodities can have long periods of negative returns and are difficult to value fundamentally
← All Portfolios